Posted on Sun, Jan. 28, 2007

WEATHER

Aging weather satellite fleet at risk

According to a new study, crucial weather and environmental satellites
soon will fail, and their replacements are insufficient and behind schedule.

BY MARTIN MERZER

Scientists soon will lose access to crucial information that helps them
better understand and predict everything from hurricanes and
earthquakes to global warming and environmental decay, according
to a candid and sobering report by prestigious experts.

As wide gaps develop in the ability of scientists to analyze natural
phenomena, Floridians -- particularly vulnerable to hurricanes,
rising sea levels and environmental changes affecting fisheries
and farmers -- could be especially affected.

''It's a train wreck,'' said Otis Brown, dean of the University of
Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science
and a member of the National Academy of Science's panel that
issued the report earlier this month.

''When you hope for the best, this is about the worst you could
imagine in terms of things going awry,'' he said.

Among the reasons for this reversal of scientific fortunes: sharp
budget cuts, ill-advised technological compromises, and a botched
partnership between the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, according to the report.

And the setbacks come at an inopportune time.

NOAA recently reported that last year was the warmest on
record in the United States, and a major study scheduled for
release Friday by an international group of scientists is expected
to amplify the developing crisis of global warming.

Scientist Stephen Hawking and several colleagues recently said
climate change posed a threat nearly equal to that of nuclear
proliferation.

To date, no one has challenged the panel's conclusions, which were
released Jan. 15. NOAA and NASA said they were studying the
436-page report. A congressional committee vowed to apply
''vigorous oversight'' to the situation.

Among the highlights -- or possibly lowlights -- of the report by
scores of experts working with the academy, which is chartered
by Congress and advises the federal government on scientific
matters:

• By 2010, the number of operating sensors and instruments on
NASA's aging fleet of weather and other global-monitoring satellites
will decrease 40 percent, and replacement sensors are behind schedule,
over budget and, in many cases, less capable.

'The United States' extraordinary foundation of global observations is
at great risk,'' the committee concluded.

Said Brown: "We're seeing a reduction in the development of new
approaches and, in fact, we well could be worse off than we are now.''

• In particular, there is ''substantial concern'' about the pending loss
of an important satellite-based instrument employed by tropical
weather forecasters and hurricane researchers.

The QuikSCAT information helps scientists estimate wind speeds at
the ocean's surface. That information contributes to year-round
forecasts of marine conditions, and it's crucially important to hurricane
specialists, helping them assess the strength of storms that are far
from land and often enabling the identification of new tropical systems.

OUTDATED DEVICE

But the device is well past its designed lifetime, which was expected to
end by 2002, and budget concerns and technical compromises prompted
NOAA to replace it with a less sophisticated instrument that still hasn't
been launched, the committee said.

This could diminish the accuracy of hurricane and other forecasts,
especially for coastal areas such as South Florida.

''The committee believes it's imperative that a measurement capability
be available to prevent a data gap,'' the report concluded.

Chris Landsea, the National Hurricane Center's science and operations
officer, called QuikSCAT a ''wonderful tool'' that has "become ingrained
in our operations, and it could disappear tomorrow.''

''What's available in the plans would be a degradation to that,'' Landsea said.

• Much of NASA's budget and many of its scientists are being diverted to
the human space program that was reenergized by President Bush's
proposal to send astronauts back to the moon and onward to Mars.

The president's 2007 budget reduced NASA's research and analysis
budget for science missions 15 percent compared to 2005. Since 2000,
the agency's earth-science budget has been slashed 30 percent. That
caused the elimination of some projects, including measurements of
solar radiation and Earth radiation that could help scientists understand
global warming.

• In addition, many of NASA's scientists seem too interested in theoretical
research and insufficiently focused on practical science that can address
pressing environmental issues, the committee said.

In particular, the panel urged NASA scientists to transition from brief
examinations of the climate to sustained studies that might help answer
pressing questions about drought, soil moisture and other issues.

And, the panel said, coordination between NOAA and NASA is weak.

''The committee is particularly concerned with the lack of clear agency
responsibility for sustained research programs and the transitioning of
proof-of-concept measurements into sustained measurement systems,''
the report said.

OTHER PROBLEMS

At the same time, NOAA is coping with many other problems. Automated
buoys, weather balloons, radars and other equipment fail at unacceptably
high rates, The Miami Herald's ''Blind Eye'' series reported in 2005, and
budget overruns are legion.

In response to the new report, both agencies issued noncommittal responses.

''It's useful to have such consolidated and prioritized information from the
users of our data,'' NOAA Administrator Conrad C. Lautenbacher said in a
written statement. "Once we have a more complete understanding of this
complex study, we will be working closely with NASA to assess how our
two agencies can best address recommendations.''

NASA said it appreciated the group's work and already devotes considerable
resources to earth sciences. ''The decadal survey offers important guidance
on how best to spend that money,'' the agency said in a prepared statement.

On Capitol Hill, Rep. Bart Gordon, D-Tenn., chairman of the House Committee
on Science and Technology, praised the committee's work as "a great service
in providing clear recommendations for a constructive way forward.''

'A CLOSE EYE'

He said the committee would keep a close eye on NOAA and NASA, especially
when it came to "continued climate observations.''

In some ways, the report represented a scientific version of the Iraq Study
Group, which last month issued a comprehensive report about the war.

Both panels stepped back, closely analyzed a government program and
issued recommendations to set right what once went wrong.

Brown, the University of Miami scientist who participated in the academy's
study, suggested that the group's conclusions should worry all Americans.

''The simple message is that we've spent decades and what amounts to billions
[of dollars] in developing state-of-the-art environmental sensing systems from
space, and what we're seeing is that these systems are at risk,'' he said.

The panel urged federal officials to fully fund currently planned satellites and
design and launch 17 new missions, but it is already too late to avoid gaps in
the U.S. network, he said.

''We might be able to use a foreign satellite capability,'' Brown said. "But in the
U.S. pipeline, there is no way to fix it quickly. There's a lag time that's measured
in years. These are long-term decisions that are made.''

And now, the consequences are becoming clear.

''To get a report like this through the national academy that even begins to hint
at how screwed up things are is pretty amazing,'' Brown said. "You can tell that
feelings are very strong about this.''

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